Development of Construction Project Cost Performance Index Analysis Method Based on Cumulative Uncertainty of Activities
Keywords:
cost performance index, earned value method, uncertainty, Monte-Carlo simulationAbstract
Today, all construction project managers use various tools and methods in order to know the project cost situation. The most important method that has been developed in this field so far is the cost performance index. In this research, this tool has been developed in accordance with the uncertainties in the financial issues of the project in order to have a better understanding of the financial situation for the project elements and to see the impact of the uncertainties in the investigation of the project costs. In this regard, the historical data of the activities has been used and its output has been used in the Monte-Carlo simulation in order to examine the cumulative uncertainty in the project. The results obtained from the simulation have led to the creation of a suitable criterion for monitoring and measuring the status of the project in the entire implementation period until the end of the project. The output has more compliance with the reality of the internal and external conditions of the project. Compliance with reality will lead to a correct diagnosis of the current situation and, as a result, a correct decision regarding the future of the project.
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