The Dual Effects of Currency Devaluation on Health Tourism Development: Insights from a Grounded Theory Study

Abstract

Currency devaluation has become an increasingly influential macroeconomic condition shaping the future trajectories of health tourism in emerging economies. While a depreciated national currency may create short‑term competitive advantages for inbound medical travel, it also introduces structural pressures that can undermine long‑term sectoral resilience. This study seeks to advance future‑oriented understanding by conceptualizing how currency devaluation simultaneously generates opportunities and pressures in health tourism development.

Drawing on a qualitative research design, this study employs a Grounded Theory approach to examine the perceptions and experiences of key stakeholders within Iran’s health tourism system, including policymakers, healthcare providers, intermediaries, and tourism experts. Data were collected through in‑depth semi‑structured interviews and analyzed through iterative open, axial, and selective coding, guided by constant comparison and theoretical sampling. Trustworthiness was ensured through methodological triangulation, peer debriefing, and reflexive analysis.

The findings identify a core category conceptualized as the duality of opportunity and pressure, through which currency devaluation operates as a double‑edged mechanism. On the opportunity side, devaluation enhances international price competitiveness, expands regional demand, and stimulates private sector participation in medical tourism services. Simultaneously, it generates future‑critical pressures, including escalating operational costs, intensified competition over healthcare resources, regulatory misalignment, and increased dependence on volatile macroeconomic conditions. These dynamics interact over time, shaping strategic responses and adaptive capacities at organizational and governance levels.

By shifting the focus from linear impact assessments to a process‑oriented and future‑sensitive conceptual model, this study contributes to tourism futures scholarship and health tourism research. The proposed framework highlights how macroeconomic shocks are translated into evolving development pathways and emphasizes the role of proactive governance in steering health tourism toward sustainable and equitable futures. The insights offer transferable implications for other destinations confronting currency instability and structural uncertainty.